It should be acknowledged that this research project was funded by the Canada Pension plan - it's not peer-reviewed science. However, Don't assume one needs math to understand and use the app.

The core idea is to manage the projection on the data entry page daily. keeping a diary seems unlikely to hurt anyone, so you are welcome to peer-review it yourself.

Exponential with a negative growth rate.

That gives the sagging curve above, rather than a straight line like the one above it. The initial . drop that the author observed followed a standard decline curve (Not surprising!) To check that, he "cut" and "burned" Advertising pressure promised lots of really fast weight loss.

That seemed hokey so he decided to find what nature really wanted.

just enough to produce a few hunger pangs once per day, and a plot of his weight history looked similar to the See below re. the straight line.

In that case the One Year Projection does not go sideways.

sagging curve shown.

The sagging function can be simplified; it approaches a lower limit that makes a good goal, and it has a speed/time parameter that a spreadsheet can extract. His test measured it at just over one year.

LET YOUR BODY SET THE PACE
The trick of monitoring his habits to produce mild hunger pangs stimulated the body to reveal its natural decline curve.

Your body re-cycles its cells continually, pulling them apart and refreshing them after a little more than a year. This is a This is a fairly recent research area.

"Cell death" sounds ominous, but it keeps us alive. See Homeostasis.

tightly regulated process, and if you try to force your weight down faster, The first explanation for this was "set points".

It now seems that arrested cell replacement causes them.

"Famine Mode" will set in. People who diet commonly trigger plateaus - diets disrupt normal regulation; needlessly stretching out the rate of drop.

Instead we use the body's one-year rate of drop as our guide. To achieve it, adjust habits to maintain the two parameters above by holding the projection on goal. The body will get you there naturally (and quicker).

The second chart shows this process: if you hold the xxx Lb One Year From Now signal exactly on goal, the horizontal green line mathematically The math for holding the "one year" projection steady sets the time constant in the equation.

That makes the dotted blue curve sag downward toward an "asymptote".

tugs the blue dotted one down.

The human body senses what it needs to stay in top shape and "feeds back" signals like "growlies" to eat more. That is one-sided feeback - sadly there is no natural "stop" There used to be one. Having food meant hoeing weeds, so over-eating was limited naturally.

Fortunately the Green Line can do the job.

signal .

If Recycling Is Damaged

When someone is very overweight - all too common these days - the body's recycling system itself may have been A search on inflammation will often bring up obesity and insulin resistance. damaged . A lot of muscle builds up to support Also, the joints tend to wear out.) high BMI , and that happened to the individual whose chart appears to the right. The total drop is almost 40%.

It is best to shed muscle, which burns calories, only at the rate you shed fat cells. For that reason, this individual chose to start his BioFeedback number at about 15% below his declining BMI and then keep lowering the goal. The graph shows Loss rate can be held constant by bringing the green line (projection) down steadily below the blue line as weight comes down. straight lines - no curvature.

There is a second reason for doing that; a Standard (the lower of the two blue weight curves; sagging and fainter.). Decay Curve requires the whole 40% shift in one's habits is needed right from the start. Instead, the straight-line graph above required only 15% change in habits at any one time.

Plan B: hold the one-year projection 15% below present weight.
You should find that any steady rate of loss should help hold blood sugar levels down, because blood sugar is the middle-man between fat and breathing out carbon dioxide. Your muscles pull it out of the blood stream if you keep them healthy and busy.