Calculator
Yhoo Combo Trend, Yield & P/E Calculator: StkCht

? The straight line converts investment into a "bond".

However, the R.O.R. is not guaranteed.

See volatility.

ROR:
0%/yr.
   Calculator Calculator

? The Green line is the center of the trend.

Its price is used for P/E and Yield.

Trend:
$0.
   

? ($Top-$Bott) relative to Green line.

More than double typical losses vs. cost.

Width: INF%
  Example; R.O.R. 5%/yr and Volatility 20% top to bottom.

Green line is 2yr of return below top and above bott.

NANyrs Return
      If Green line is above entry, that is an advantage (gain).

Purchasing above green line may result in a drop later.

Loss: 0yr
          ...
?   This also calculates "bond" growth rate.

Its %/yr value has to be added to yield to get total return.

ROR:
0%/yr.
  

?   A bond's Principal does not grow, but it yields interest.

The payout for a stock is a dividend, and its value grows too.

  Yield: 0%/yr.
This is the percentage of earnings for shareholder dividends.

It is also the fraction of the Earnings Yield below.

  Payout: 0%

? For steady P/E, this should be the same as chart %/yr above.

(For Yahoo charts; StockCharts include dividends.)

ROR:
0%/yr.
   

?   If the P/E "Multiple" expands, the price might soon crash.

However, low interest rates permit expension.

P/E:
0
? The yield above is paid in cash to shareholders.

This reduces earnings available to grow the business.

Earnings Yield
:0%/yr.

 
Click for running a line through more than two points.

They will be separated by "|" characters.

Full LSF=>
Calculator
A 4-function calculator for compacting pairs of Web data.

(Click image to left for a whole trend.)
Work Area
for Select two sets of dividends or earnings that average out well. They should be separated in time. Pairs of Dividend & HINT: Negative numbers crash this Equation. Lump together quarters to avoid that.



EPS Data
:



[result: ]  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The Basics - Rate of Return From Charts
Row 1: ends and length of logarithmic line touching EMA twice; gives chart R.O.R.
  Show Result
StockScores.Com Rate of Return has two parts; cash paid to you and growth of the ETF.

includes
The dividend is cash paid. Growth can be seen as an upward slope.

dividends
. Yahoo Charts The Yahoo chart slopes down. Stockscores chart to the left slopes up because dividend is mixed in.

exclude them

Here is the HAC.TO Chosen because it pays no dividend. The upward slope is your total return.

chart again
, with a red dotted line drawn in after you hit annotate:

The cursor has been moved to Put it on the little yellow dot.

the left
and we There is a little gray bar at the bottom, ending in 17.13.

measure
$17.13 for the price five years ago. After entering that, we moved the cursor to the The chart is five years wide. Enter that in the third box.

Press Submit to convert the three measurements to a slope in %/yr.

right
and measured $24.69. The calculator returns about 7%/yr as This ETF is a parking spot for cash because its management parks its capital in bonds once the 7%/yr gain has been secured.

expected
.

Removing Up and Down Price Jumps:

The red dotted line has been moved to JUST TOUCH the red EMA200 line in two places (eliminating Until the next line - here we bridge over two wiggles to pick the slope out of it

volatility)
. Any straight line on the chart behaves like a bond yielding interest and the dotted line follows the price growth of the ETF, ignoring noise.


Why it works: The charts we use are logarithmic. That converts an up-swooping price to a straight line. (The Y-axis values are closer together near the top). The slope of the line then translates into %/yr in the calculator.

Secondly, the price fluctuates in what are called Elliott Waves. The EMA200 suppresses these waves if they are shorter than a year, and bridging over two of the remaining wobbles will pick off the slope over a period of about four years.

The EMA responds well to slope measurements, but the the SMA200 that brokers commonly use tangles itself up attempting to measure %/yr. Avoid it.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The Basics: Measuring Chart Volatility
Row 2: Top and bottom of range at a single date:
Show Result

The math is obscure, but the resulting procedure is something we can easily DO. Open an independent tab with a chart and we will measure its Elliott waves.

The same formula for Rate Of Return can give the amount of Up - And - Down variation within one year; just measure In other words define volatility as a statistical range rather than as standard deviation.

top-to-bot
tom at any The two measurements also give the green mid-line.

The date allows this to give an entry criterion.

date
:
At the end of Row 2, the program calculates the mid-point, along the green line, and projects it to $36.46 for the current date (trend). The volatility is shown in Row 3, first as a percentage relative to the green line and then as the number of years it takes the green line to climb from bottom to top of the trend.

This gives us something to go on when deciding whether to buy it. The most one can gain by waiting is half of the volatility, or 0.9 yr.


Why it works: Elliott Waves are a result of decisions by investors and their brokers. Decisions are guided visually, so we draw in the two blue lines visually too, defining a "statistical range" rather than something like Beta.

Percentages are referred to something and the program assigns the Geometric Mean of top and bottom at the date of measurement to be 100%; the green line. Thus it is only weakly related to purchase price unless you buy at the green mid-line.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The Basics - Choosing an Entry Point
Row 3: Type in market price and make the decision:
($Top-$Bott) relative to Green line.

More than double typical losses vs. cost.

Width: INF%
  Example; R.O.R. 5%/yr and Volatility 20% top to bottom.

Green line is 2yr of return below top and above bott.

NANyrs Return
   
Show Result
Above the middle of volatility, store new $$$ in bonds or HAC.
Buy and Hold after corrections. (Do not trade after that.)

Here is the chart for Low Beta again, with
Here is how to enter data for the Low Beta ETF and test for predicted entry advantage for buying below the green trend line:


If the entry price was higher then the green line this will be shown:

Why it works: Our trick of monitoring of dividends and making sure they grow at the same rate as price ensures that we avoid speculative "growth" stocks.

After price wanders up too much many brokers will stop recommending it because of low Dividend . That means that the average price (green line) is partially controlled by dividends. Ditto for earnings growth , because other brokers will focus on the ratio and stop recommending it when earnings are low, also holding the green line down. If the inverse of P/E is lower than the dividend yield that will also raise red flags because will be more than 100% of earnings.

Thus if a stock has really good P/E and dividend characteristics but is above the green line, we can park our $$$ (maybe in HAC.TO) for a while and wait. (See below.)

When it doesn't work The rise of price is actually driven by expectation of future earnings. That means there are many brokers who recommend based upon the "story" of a company rather than past performance. If R.O.R. measured on the chart is very high, we should let investors with deeper pockets have the gain and take the risk.
Things take a while to get corrected when the price R.O.R. out-runs Earnings:

To the left, P/E rises until the stock goes out of favor. Then it will drop as shown or go flat and in due time an attractive P/E will develop and cause another run-up. (See below.)

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Obtaining Slope of Other Metrics:
Rows 4 to 7; type in dates and yearly payouts:

The straight line converts investment into a "bond".

However, the R.O.R. is not guaranteed.

See volatility.

ROR:
0 %/yr.

  It may be Okay to just type in two typical values.

Otherwise, a spreadsheet can fit many points to a line.

2
nd Data Pt:  
The straight line converts investment into a "bond".

However, the R.O.R. is not guaranteed.

See volatility.

Show Result
These pairs of rows serve the same purpose as the top row; they define two points on a straight line and the number of years between them. However, the time is entered as two calendar dates. The result is the slope of the line, expressed as %/yr growth rate of dividends. (The pair of rows for earnings work the same way.)
  1. To keep it simple, the four user inputs can run the Continouous Interest Equation through only two points.
  2. Advanced users can use "|" characters to separate annual values and do a Least Squares Fit through many samples.
These are more than inputs; they Using standard calculator notation.

For more than one year, see the link below.

calculate too
. If dividend data is posted on web sites quarterly, with a clutter of dates, spaces etc., you can copy a year's worth and paste it into their upper right They will expand to allow editing.

boxes
. If you highlight the clutter and replace it with "+" characters, The minus sign works only between numbers.

To make a number negative, subtract it from zero.

standard calculator
notation will convert that into a simple sum of four quarters. If you want to average two years, appending ")/2" with an opening bracket will do that.


Reducing Many Points to a Pair:

One can enter X and Y points for dividends, earnings, book value etc. in a spreadsheet, prepare a Ln(Y) column, and then run a straight (logarithmic) line among the points using the SLOPE() function. Multiplying by 100% will then yield an average R.O.R. for whatever metric you obtain.

The sample spreadsheet provided will recalculate two data pairs to enter in the boxes above. (They are on a line that is fitted through scattered data.) Be aware, though, that if X is expressed as dates, you need to divide by 365Days/Yr.

Entering Many Points in Upper Dividend/EPS Boxes:

The algorithm in the spreadsheet has also been applied below to Select incomes for years you expect to be similar to future ones.

navigate a path
through Try various scenarios to get an idea of what the future might hold.

erratic earnings
of someone working in Here supply and demand take nasty jumps and there may be no pension plans.

resource industries
. These entries may also be used instead of a spreadsheet to reduce Enter web data for several quarters in the work area.

Over-write the clutter with plus signs etc. to calculate a year's worth to insert between "|" characters.

dividends or earnings
to The first and second date boxes select the values to include.

a trend
(separated by "|" characters) to enter in the upper Dividend/EPS box of the main calculator.

Vertical bars at bottom separate years of EPS, dividends or income.

Long box is a calculator for adding quarters and averaging longer term.
**
A Trend Line for Scattered Data Select a year, and you can enter data there or enter web data in the long box and insert "+" signs.

It will calculate a result and put it in the selected box.
**

{ A Least squares fit through wild jumps using the Continuous Interest Equation.

This is STRICTLY LOCAL to your browser - nobody else.

Calculated
} Oil Patch: try future income until you get slope to zero.

That gives a sixteen-year average to budget for.
line slopes at
{-60.2}%/yr:
..0 20..1 20..2
20..3 20..4 20..5
20..6 20..7 20..8
20..9 20..A 20..B
20..C 20..D 20..E
A calculator to compact one of the boxes above.

Enter data scraped off the Web.

Work Area
for Select one year above for calculator's results.

You can average several years and copy them into other boxes.
Fitting a Trend to
HINT: Negative numbers make the logarithmic Continuous Interest Equation crash. Lump together quarters to avoid that. Data:

Below is the list of dividends or EPS that this button puts back. <=
This button inserts a new year.

Caution: empty cells won't store properly.

<=

_demo0

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The Basics - Doubling Time
supplies the Continouous Interest formula A = Pert. Later it will appear on charts as straight lines, but for now let's think of it as just another calculator. Plugging in You will pick this off graphs as a slope measurment.

r(ate
), t estimated years until retirement. (ime) and P For example your RRSP room on tax returns. (rincipal) below puts stocks and bonds on the same footing for when you retire:

DOUBLING-TIME EXERCISE: E.g. ten k invested in an ETF called HAC.TO and just held returning 7%/yr would grow to 20k in ten years.

  • Try rates like %/yr with

  • retirement in years after

  • setting aside $k now.

    Result A = $20751k.

  • The top box ETF is for overall Interest or dividend per year, plus any growth.

    Express it as % of amount invested.

    return
    of an investment. Try an Measured by this program as the %/yr slope of a StockCharts chart.

    "interest rate"
    of Bonds have zero growth rate, yielding only interest.

    Stocks' growth acts like interest, returning more than purchase price.

    10%/yr
    ; available right now from banks.

    Try an aggressive rate of 20%/yr; available for now from an ETF holding Amazon, Google etc.

    Here is the pattern you will find:
    Divide the %/yr growth rate into 70 and you get doubling time.

    Caveat: the above numbers do not take into account the effect of inflation:
    .
    Expected Central banks try for 2%/yr in consumer prices by adjusting interest rates.

    inflation
    : %/yr. Purchasing Power: $20751k.

    A Deeper Dive: actually uses the approximate formula A = P(1 + r/n)nt that is often used instead of the continous (exponential) formula above. The symbols mean

    Top Box; (This box will more often be set to "rate".)

    That translates into extracting %yr Rate of growth of charts, dividends or earnings.

    Answer
    A (selected first box; displayed at bottom) is given by

    your original P=$10k (second box) invested at

    interest rate of r=7.3%/yr(third box)

    compounded n times per year ( "Continuous" means time between calculations goes to zero.

    Effectively, that eliminates the variable n completely.

    fourth box
    )

    and sitting there for t=10 years (fifth box):

    Notice that setting n=a zillion (continuous) eliminates it and changes the formula to A = Pert=$20751k. This formula is used by banks to calculate interest.

    To do that it has to be changed to r=Ln(A/P)/t.

    Notice that it is not yield.

    That happens to be
    the formula for the ert swoops upward on a normal plot.

    A "log plot" makes it into a straight line by compressing the upper part of the Y-axis.
    "log plots" that
    market websites show us.


    This same calculator can be reversed, to extract the Growth Rate from pairs of dollar values, growing or shrinking over a time in years. That is the mode in which we use the equation to manage Dividend and Earnings Growth rates, and throughout the website's calculator. It can also be extracted from scattered data.
    Why it works: This equation's growth rate r applies to every $$$ that is in an account at a particular instant (by averaging the whole account or ETF basket). That includes all accumulated previous growth (or decay in the case of inflation). That is also A dollar of "retained earnings" finances machinery etc.

    If not needed for growth, it becomes a dividend.

    true of a business
    if its earnings track its total investment and/or if its share of the market is expanding or the company is E.G. Philip Morris' stock price grows at 6.7%/yr while the tobacco market shrinks. buying back shares.

    Now comes a trick. Human perception also works this way; we focus on percentage change rather than QUESTION: can you feel the tops of your socks right now?

    value
    of things. Brokers look at charts to make recommendations whether to invest new money in stocks or bonds, and their thinking works on percentage change too. That makes their decisions follow this Continuous Interest Equation, and we can predict their behavior with simple straight lines!